23일 한국경제인협회에 따르면 시장조사 전문기관 모노리서치에 의뢰해 전국 상경계열 교수들을 대상으로 ‘한국경제 중장기 전망 및 주요 리스크’ 설문조사를 실시한 결과, 응답자 111명의 57.6%가 2025년 한국의 잠재성장률이 1%대(1.8%)에 진입할 것으로 추정했다.
잠재성장률 ‘2.0% 미만’ 응답(57.6%)은 세부적으로는 △1.7~1.9%(31.5%) △1.4~1.6%(12.6%) △1.1~1.3%(13.5%)로 나타났다.
‘2.0% 이상’ 응답은 총 42.4%이며 △2.0~2.2%(32.5%), △2.3~2.5%(9.0%) △2.6~2.8%(0.9%) 순이었다.
응답자들이 추정한 잠재성장률 평균치는 이미 1%대(1.8%)로, 1%대의 잠재성장률 진입을 ‘목전에 두고 있다’는 정부의 입장과는 다소 온도차를 보였다.
피크 코리아론에 대한 동의 여부를 묻는 질문에는 응답자의 66.7%가 ‘어느 정도 동의’(52.3%)하거나, ‘매우 동의’(14.4%)하는 것으로 응답했다. ‘비동의’ 응답은 총 31.5%로, ‘그다지 동의하지 않음’이 29.7%, ‘매우 동의하지 않음’이 1.8%였다.
피크 코리아(Peak Korea)론이란 GDP 성장률의 급격한 하락, 잠재성장률 하락을 근거로 ‘한국의 경쟁력이 정점을 찍고 내리막길에 들어섰다’는 견해를 말한다.
한국경제의 중장기 위협요인으로는 ‘저출산·고령화로 인한 인구절벽’(41.8%)이 가장 많이 지목됐다. 이어 ‘신성장동력(포스트 반도체 산업) 부재’(34.5%), ‘노동시장의 경직성과 낮은 노동생산성’(10.8%)을 꼽았다.
인구절벽의 경제적 영향과 관련해서는 인구절벽이 ‘경제활동인구 감소’(37.9%)를 통해 우리 경제에 가장 큰 타격을 줄 것으로 전망했다. ‘연금 고갈 및 복지비용 증가’(19.8%), ‘내수 침체’(15.3%), ‘지방 소멸’(15.3%), ‘국가 재정부담 증가’(11.7%)가 그 뒤를 이었다.
한국경제의 재도약을 위해 기업이 가장 우선적으로 해야 할 조치로는 10명 중 4명이 ‘생산성 향상 노력’(40.6%)을 꼽았다. 이어 ‘연구개발 확대’(18.0%), ‘전통산업에서 신산업으로의 사업재편’(17.1%), ‘해외시장 개척 및 공급망 다변화’(14.4%) 등이었다.
경제 재도약을 위해 가장 필요한 정부 정책으로는 ‘기업 설비투자 지원 및 연구개발 촉진’(34.3%), ‘기업활력 제고를 위한 규제 개선’(22.8%), ‘신산업 진출 관련 이해 갈등 해소’(13.8%), ‘노동시장 유연화’(12.6%) 등을 지목했다.
이상호 한경협 경제산업본부장은 “우리 경제는 성장잠재력이 약화되면서, 경제 펀더멘털의 구조적 침하 가능성이 높아진 상황으로, 이를 방치할 경우 저성장의 늪에서 빠져나오기 어려울 것”이라며 “기업들이 혁신, 기업가정신 재점화, 미래 먹거리 발굴 노력 등을 통해 글로벌 경쟁력을 확보할 수 있도록 정부, 국회의 전폭적인 지원이 필요하다”고 전했다.
break9874@naver.com
*아래는 위 기사를 '구글 번역'으로 번역한 영문 기사의 [전문]입니다. '.<*The following is [the full text] of the English article translated by 'Google Translate'..>
Academic circles: Korea's economic potential growth rate this year is in the 1% range...lower than government estimates
Domestic business professors estimated Korea’s potential growth rate this year at an average of ‘1.8%’. This figure is lower than the Bank of Korea’s recent estimate of 2.0% (announced in December 2024).
According to the Korea Economic Association on the 23rd, a survey on ‘Korean economy mid- to long-term outlook and major risks’ conducted by Monoresearch, a market research firm, targeting business professors nationwide estimated that 57.6% of the 111 respondents estimated that Korea’s potential growth rate would enter the 1% range (1.8%) in 2025.
The potential growth rate response of ‘less than 2.0%’ (57.6%) was broken down into △1.7~1.9% (31.5%), △1.4~1.6% (12.6%), and △1.1~1.3% (13.5%).
The response of ‘2.0% or more’ was 42.4% in total, followed by △2.0~2.2% (32.5%), △2.3~2.5% (9.0%), and △2.6~2.8% (0.9%).
The average potential growth rate estimated by the respondents was already in the 1% range (1.8%), showing some difference from the government’s position that the potential growth rate of 1% is ‘on the verge of’ entering.
In response to the question asking whether they agreed with the Peak Korea theory, 66.7% of the respondents answered that they ‘somewhat agreed’ (52.3%) or ‘strongly agreed’ (14.4%). The response of ‘disagreeing’ was 31.5% in total, with 29.7% ‘not very much disagreeing’ and 1.8% ‘strongly disagreeing’.
The Peak Korea theory refers to the view that ‘Korea’s competitiveness has peaked and is on the decline’ based on the sharp decline in GDP growth rate and potential growth rate.
The most cited mid- to long-term threat to the Korean economy was the ‘population cliff due to low birth rate and aging population’ (41.8%). This was followed by ‘absence of new growth engine (post-semiconductor industry)’ (34.5%) and ‘rigidity of labor market and low labor productivity’ (10.8%).
Regarding the economic impact of the population cliff, it was predicted that the population cliff would have the greatest impact on our economy through ‘decrease in economically active population’ (37.9%). This was followed by ‘depletion of pension and increase in welfare costs’ (19.8%), ‘slump in domestic demand’ (15.3%), ‘disappearance of local governments’ (15.3%), and ‘increase in national fiscal burden’ (11.7%).
Four out of ten respondents said that the most important measure for companies to take in order to revive the Korean economy is ‘efforts to improve productivity’ (40.6%). This was followed by ‘expanding research and development’ (18.0%), ‘restructuring from traditional industries to new industries’ (17.1%), and ‘developing overseas markets and diversifying supply chains’ (14.4%).
The most necessary government policies for revive the economy were ‘supporting corporate facility investment and promoting research and development’ (34.3%), ‘improving regulations to enhance corporate vitality’ (22.8%), ‘resolving conflicts of interest related to entering new industries’ (13.8%), and ‘making the labor market more flexible’ (12.6%).
Lee Sang-ho, head of the Economic and Industrial Headquarters at the Korea Economic Council, said, “As our economy’s growth potential is weakening, the possibility of a structural decline in economic fundamentals has increased. If we leave this situation unattended, it will be difficult to escape the low-growth swamp.” He added, “The government and the National Assembly need to provide full support so that companies can secure global competitiveness through innovation, rekindling their entrepreneurial spirit, and efforts to discover future food sources.”
<저작권자 ⓒ 부산브레이크뉴스 무단전재 및 재배포 금지>
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